I picked Coco to win Wimbledon and she flamed out against Pavyluchenkova with a pitiful performance. She lost five straight matches to end 2016 in a streak that started before the U.S. Open. She was two games away from losing to Vinci in the first round here.
So although she definitely has the game to beat Kerber, I absolutely did not see this coming. She'd never really done anything of note on anything but grass, but Fuck Uncle Kiki, she has now.
Of the eight men's quarterfinalists, I think Federer, Raonic, Wawrinka, Nadal, Dimitrov and Tsonga all have a chance to win it. That seems extreme, but in a tournament where Djokovic and Murray lost to journeymen, anything is possible. I know this: although Nadal has not looked great, I will be sick in the stomach if he and Federer both reach the final because I will be convinced Federer cannot win. It's probably not true in reality, but having sat through all of their grand slam meetings, I have zero belief in Federer winning the important points against Nadal.
On outdoor hard courts, Nadal is 8-2 against Federer. Fed's last win was at Indian Wells in 2012.