- Forehand_lob
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Re: 2016 Australian Open contest
I know I said that Kerber was due against Azarenka, but I didn't really believe it would happen.
I kind of think of Kerber's game as being like Clijsters 1.0 (that is, before her injury in 2004). She's got the physical gifts to hang with anyone, and I think she's been the German player that nobody's given a lot of credit, despite her ranking. She will be a huge favorite to make her first Grand Slam final.
- funches
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Re: 2016 Australian Open contest
Sweet.
I did not think Kerber was going to win, but as I posted here after the quarterfinals, I thought she could hang with Serena. Her return of serve is incredible--she's the best on tour at getting them back in play, and that was the pivotal factor in a match when Serena did not have her best serve. There were at least five hard serves that no one else would have gotten back without being in a hopeless defensive position, but Kerber pushed them back deep just in front of the baseline, including one when Serena had game point at 2-2 in the third set.
If Kerber had given her more free points, Serena would have calmed down and played better.
I always thought Kerber was the most talented of the three counterpunchers at the top of the game (Wozniacki and Radwanska are the others), but her results were nowhere near as accomplished as the other two because of mental breakdowns and her inability to tough out close matches. Saving that match point in the opening round against Doi clearly loosened her up and allowed her to play her best, which we saw in that third set when she had 12 winners to three unforced errors.
I would not be surprised if Kerber wins another slam. It's no lock, but she is really tough to beat when she is playing well.
Last edited by funches (1/30/2016 4:02 pm)
- Forehand_lob
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Re: 2016 Australian Open contest
I'm not sure I'd say that Kerber is the most talented out of those three players. She's stronger, and doesn't just need an error from her opponent.
Serena didn't play her best, but it wasn't painful to watch her, like her match against Vinci at the US Open.
Also, we have maybe a unique circumstance. We both have the same number of quarterfinalists, semifinalists, and finalists. We both picked Djokovic to win. We have a tie, unless we're looking at bagels and breadsticks.
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Thread Starter- Forehand_lob
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Re: 2016 Australian Open contest
Our biggest losers also canceled each other out since we picked the same ones. It comes down to bagels and breadsticks of the players we differed by.
At this point, I want to thank Serena for the baked goods she served Sharapova and Radwanska.
Here's what I have for our differences:
F_lob
Tsonga: 1
Berdych: 5
Anderson: 0
Lopez: 3
Sharapova: 6
Radwanska: 6
Muguruza: 2
Venus: 0
Total: 23
funches
Nishikori: 0
Kyrgios: 1
Raonic: 1
Isner: 0
Bencic: 0
Azarenka: 7
Pliskova: 1
Total: 10
It wasn't officially in, so I'm okay with declaring this a tie if you are. Otherwise, this tiebreaker comes down to a 13 point difference in baked goods because your picks weren't good about winning sets easily (or losing them easily).
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Thread Starter- funches
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Re: 2016 Australian Open contest
I concede.
If Raonic had not gotten injured, I believe he would have finished off Murray and I would have deserved to win, but hey, it's not like that's the first time he's gotten hurt, and Murray's superior fitness mattered.
I think Kerber has a better serve than Radwanska, a better forehand than Wozniacki and much better angles than both of them. Radwanska has better hands and better variety, but both of those skills are overrated. It's not like she can come to the net against good players, and I'll take Kerber's angles over Radwanska's variety.
Last year, Kerber had two incredibly frustrating losses in slams to Muguruza when Kerber played quite well but Muguruza was money on every big point, hitting massive winners on almost every break point she faced or had. Muguruza rarely plays as well as she did on those days, so Kerber deserved the nice draw she got in Melbourne (one top 40 player before the final).
I did not include Halep on my list of counterpunches because she's innately more aggressive than the other three, but I may have to reconsider. She is one-trick pony, though, with outstanding anticipation and the ability to hit down the line and crosscourt beautifully to surprise her opponents but lousy passing shots, a mediocre return of serve and not great feel on drop shots. I've watched her more than any other female player in the last two years, and the weaknesses I did not notice in her terrific Roland Garros run in 2014 have become very apparent. No way would she have beaten Serena in that final.
- Forehand_lob
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Re: 2016 Australian Open contest
I think it's also worth mentioning that Kerber is not one of those players who had a freak good tournament at a slam and never did anything else again. When she got to the US Open semis in 2011, there was no indication that she'd take her place at the top of the game. Compare that to Oudin or Wickmayer who haven't made it to the quarterfinals at a slam since their one breakout tournament. US press notwithstanding, Wickmayer is the bigger disappointment.
Another player who backed up a good slam showing is Li Na. Quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2006, but it took until 2009 for her to return to a slam QF.
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