Men

QF
Djokovic v. Raonic
Wawrinka v Nishikori
Gulbis v. Anderson
Dimitrov (Murray) v. Federer

SF
Djokovic v Wawrinka
Gulbis v. Federer

F
Djokovic v. Federer

Champion
Federer (heart over head)

BL: Nadal

Women

QF
Serena v. Azarenka
Petkovic v Radwanska
Ivanovic v. Halep
Kerber (Bouchard) v. Sharapova

SF
Azarenka v. Petkovic
Halep v. Sharapova

F
Petkovic v. Sharapova

Champion
Sharapova

BL: Cibulkova

For the first time in a long time I think Federer has a real chance to win this slam without getting any help. When he beat Djokovic late last year (the Djoker's only loss after the U.S. Open) he played one of the best matches of his career.

The key will be staying healthy the whole tournament and not having one of those bad matches that older players succumb to more frequently, like his no-show against Cilic in the U.S. Open semis.

Although Djokovic enters every hardcourt slam as the overwhelming favorite in almost everyone's eyes, the reality is he's won only one of the last five Aussie and U.S. Opens combined--the 2013 Aussie Open. He's struggled mightily in his last three hardcourt slams against Wawrinka and did not post in his matchup with Nishikori in Queens last year.

Yes, Gulbis had four match points and couldn't convert them. My pick, Feliciano Lopez, saved four match points in winning his first-round match as I continued a long history of being unable to pick the biggest loser. 

Seeing as how I had Sharapova in the final, I thought your Sharapova pick was quite possible at the beginning of the tournament, but not any longer. Although she proved once again how clutch she is in her comeback win in the 2nd round, on a hunch I checked her early-round results from the five slams she won, and in every one of them she crushed all of opponents in the first week. All of her close victories, and there have been many, were in slams she did not win. 

If Azarenka plays like she did against Wozniacki (quick aside: those pundits who picked the punchless Woz to win the tournament don't understand tennis), she can go all the way. In fact, I don't think anyone but Serena could possibly beat her if she maintains that form, which is questionable considering her lack of match play. 

I was stunend by Ivanovic's loss. Stunned. She won more matches than anyone in the WTA last year, and although she choked in slams, she didn't lose to players like that or choke as bad as she did here. 
 

No doubt on Raonic. 

He's just a better Karlovic or Isner. He competes well, but his return game is a joke against top players. 

Sharapova is playing well enough to hang with Serena if she believes in herself, but I don't think he does when she faces Serena. I expect a match similar to the Keys scoreline, but not if Sharapova plays to her full potential. 

Wawrinka-Djokovic is a 50-50 match. Right now, the Wawrinka backhand is the best shot in tennis. And Djokovic may need a while to adjust to playing someone who can win baseline rallies after facing Muller and Raonic back to back.