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What does it mean that we've had two big European claycourt tournaments and Nadal has gone out in the quarterfinals in both of them?
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Nothing like this has ever happened to Nadal since he won Roland Garros for the first time.
Before the claycourt season I looked up his career results and noted all the active player who had ever beaten him on clay, a list that began and ended with Federer, Djokovic, Ferrer (very early in Rafa's career), Verdasco (blue clay), Zeballos (first tourney back from long injury) and Volandri (in a challenger). Suddenly, he's lost back-to-back to Ferrer and Almagro with no excuses.
If Djokovic were healthy, I'd be confident Nadal's run at Roland Garros was about to end. But other than Djokovic, it's still hard for me to imagine any player capable of beating Rafa on clay in a best-of-five set match. Certainly not Ferrer or Almagro, both of whom almost blew their three-set wins against him by getting tight.
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Going back to an old tennis-x debate, I've never warmed up to the world feed ATP tennis announcers on The Tennis Channel that everyone else seemed to like. The lead play-by-play guy (Robby Koenig? Chris Wilkinson? Not sure) is the worst kind of shill for the sport. I caught the end of Fognini's tank job against Rosol in Rome the other day, and Koenig was insisting that Rosol had played just as well as he did against Nadal at Wimbledon and the crowd was unjustified in whistling at Fognini.
I understand intelligent people can see the same thing and view it differently, but Koenig had to be the only person on the planet with that take. Yet, when any ESPN commentator does something half that idiotic, the tennis Internet is all over their case for being a moron. Give me ESPN's crew over the world feed guys any day. Unfortunately, I don't get that option for any tour event played outside of America.
Last edited by funches (5/14/2014 11:14 am)
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Nadal seems vulnerable this year. He's losing sets on clay to Nishikori and Simon. Maybe he's afraid to play like he has in the past.
I've never thought the ESPN crew was that bad. There are times when I was frustrated with them, but I think I actually prefer ESPN broadcasts over Tennis Channel's because it seems to be more timely. In particular, the Stuttgart final was on Tennis Channel over a day after it was played; that was frustrating.
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I'm hopeful that Nadal has slipped but I'm not totally convinced. He is playing quite poorly for patches of his matches but usually still conjures up his best stuff when it really matters, as he did against Murray in the last three games yesterday. It's still hard to imagine anyone beating him in a best-of-five set match on clay other than Djokovic.
If Rafa continues to drop sets in the early rounds of Roland Garros, I'll begin believing he's in trouble. But I suspect he will round into form by then. His level of play in the third set of his matches this week against Simon, Youzhny and Murray was higher than in the previous three tournaments.
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Nadal enters Roland Garros with only one European claycourt title this year. That's never happened before.
I'd say that this year is probably as good as any (other than 2011) for Djokovic to beat Nadal at Roland Garros.