With Azarenka out of Doha and Dubai, Li will move up to #2.  She won't have to face Serena before the finals, which I think helps her considerably.

I'm not sure if I agree with the idea that flaky people can't change and be consistent.  If nothing else, you have Serena herself learning to play in "4th gear" under Patrick Mouratoglou.  You might say that Serena was never flaky, but that was a fairly big mental change, and I would argue that Clijsters had one too, circa 2005.