Quality Tennis Discussion / Clay Court season 2016

**Posted by Forehand_lob** 4/21/2016 5:49 am

Nadal winning Monte Carlo is not exactly surprising, but it's probably the biggest news we have so far. I think we'd be better able to judge how well he's doing if he beat Djokovic, but Djokovic crashed out.

If Nadal gets his confidence back, do you think there's a chance that he can prevent DJokovic from getting a career Slam this year?

**Posted by funches** 4/21/2016 9:50 am

I think there's a chance. Djokovic, as well as he's been playing, is still susceptible to a great player playing well. He does not play as aggressively as consistently as he used to because his basic game wins him almost every match he plays. But when Nadal is on form on clay or when Wawrinka zones out on clay, he is vulnerable.

I agree we don't know enough about Nadal's form yet. He plays Fognini, his kryptonite a year ago, in the Barcelona QF, and that could be interesting. Nadal won Monte Carlo without serving well and without hitting his forehand nearly as well as he did in his prime, but he fought like he used to and played big points like he used to. On clay, it's all in his head. Even with his diminished game, there's no reason he can't be the second best player in the world on clay if his confidence is high.

**Posted by funches** 4/21/2016 9:52 am

Halep won three games against Siegemund in her first match in Stuttgart today. Three games.

That's after winning four games against Kerber on Sunday at Fed Cup in Romania.

She could be out of the top 10 by Roland Garros. I'm mystified at what is going on, but the almighty Darren Cahill does not seem to be helping her even though his fellow TV analysts heap massive praise on him every time he visits her during a match.

Last edited by funches (4/21/2016 9:53 am)

**Posted by Forehand_lob** 4/27/2016 6:05 am

The loss to Siegemund doesn't look as bad, given that she made it to the final. Still, Halep is not going to be my pick to win Roland Garros. At this point, I am leaning towards Kerber (deep in Charleston, won Stuttgart). It'll be a much easier pick if Azarenka is on the other side of the draw; she could win, but she's only won one clay singles title in her career, back in 2011.

As for Serena, well, all things are possible with Serena. It wouldn't be shocking to see her win. It also wouldn't be shocking to see her lose early.

Perhaps Halep needs that sinus surgery that she's delayed.

Let's see if Djokovic rebounds in Madrid or Rome. Wouldn't be surprised if he lost to Federer in Madrid (if he plays, though Federer has traditionally played well there), but a loss to anyone else would be bad news for his Roland Garros plans.

**Posted by funches** 5/10/2016 9:11 am

Halep had the easiest draw in the history of tennis, but in the Madrid final against Cibulkova she finally played like she did in 2014, when it took a zoning Sharapova to beat her in three set in the Roland Garros final after she cruised through six matches. I really had not seen her play one match since then as aggressively as she did against Cibulkova.

History says Halep will go belly-up in the first few rounds in Rome, but she's talented enough to dominate the historically weak WTA field on clay (unless Serena regains her form; Halep can't handle the true big hitters when they are in form). I could see it going either way, with Halep losing to almost anyone in the first week of Roland Garros or her winning the title comfortably.

Last edited by funches (5/10/2016 9:11 am)