1 | Player discussion » Sinner and rankings » 4/11/2025 6:10 am |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 2
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Zverev is out too. Honestly, it's probably for the best for him, because I can see his crumbling under the mantle of being a slamless number one. Rios remains the only man to have that questionable honor, while Safina and Jankovic have that status on the women's side.
EDIT: Pliskova too. I forgot her. Though Clijsters, Mauresmo and Wozniacki all became number one before winning a slam. Maybe others too that I'm forgetting.
| Player discussion » Sinner and rankings » 3/23/2025 7:02 am |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 2
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Update!
It looks like I may have miscalculated the number of points that Sinner has. By the ATP site, he'll go down to 9730 points before Rome,
Alcaraz is out; he can't win enough. Zverev has 7245 after the last year points are removed, so if he wins 2 of the 3 of Miami, Monte Carlo or Madrid, gets to the quarters or better in the third and also wins Munich, he can take the number one spot.
If Alcaraz runs the table on the remaining Master's and wins Barcelona, he could overtake Zverev for the number two spot.
| Player discussion » Sinner and rankings » 2/16/2025 10:46 am |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 2
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Well, Sinner has a 3 month ban, but it ends before the Rome Master's, and he'll be able to play the French Open. Honestly, it seems a little weak from WADA.
During this time last year, he accumulated 1900 points, so he'll go down to 9930. He was absent for most of the early clay season, so that's why it's not really affecting him that much. Can anyone take the #1 ranking from him during that time?
Zverev and Alcaraz are the only credible contenders for that.
Removing their points for this period from both of them leaves Zverev with 7185 and Alcaraz with 6010. Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Madrid are on the schedule, so it is theoretically possible for either of them. Djokovic in 2011 pulled off 4 Master's wins (Rome over Monte Carlo in that list), but I'm not seeing either of them pull that off.
Zverev is playing Rio and Alcapulco, so he can gain up to 1000 points there. If he wins one of those tournaments and does very well in the Master's, then he's got a good chance to take over the number one ranking. Whether that would be a good thing or just cause him a huge amount of stress for the French Open is another question.
Alcaraz probably needs to run the table on all four Master's. Alcaraz didn't play Monte Carlo last year. He also didn't play much clay since he was injured a lot. I think it's a question on whether he'll pack his schedule or not, with my personal feeling being that he'd lean to "not".
| Tournaments » 2025 Australian Open » 2/09/2025 10:08 am |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 6
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Alcaraz reminds me of a young Serena in that their levels could bounce all over the place. It wasn't until she got Mouratoglou as her coach that her level really stabilized. And arguably she couldn't hit the highs that she used to while she was under him, though that may have been more of a product of age.
Also, while acknowledging that Djokovic really wanted to win the Olympics, saying you didn't see a drop off from his 2023 year of 3 slams, a final in the other slam, 2 masters, and trading the number 1 ranking back and forth with Alcaraz versus losing the number 1 ranking to Sinner in mid 2024 and not challenging for it, making 1 Slam final, a semi, quarter, and 3rd round, winning the Olympic gold without breaking Alcaraz (albeit in straight sets), and not winning any other tournaments. He wants that 25th Slam to beat the tie with Margaret Court, but I agree that his non Slam results (barring the Olympics) don't interest him much anymore.
| Tournaments » 2025 Australian Open » 1/23/2025 7:22 am |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 6
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I think these contests have shown that I clearly don't know anything about tennis.
As for Keys, it is just a bit of being ready for her to at least get to another slam final or challenge for the top ranking, but it's been 27 slams since her first one while the next generation of players took over. As I write this, she's in a third set with Swiatek, so you can be right!
Any thoughts on Djokovic beating Alcaraz? I am ready to put Alcaraz in the "very talented, but inconsistent" category; I have doubt that he will dominate the sport with Sinner. I mean, he's behind Zverev in the rankings despite winning 2 slams and a masters!
| Tournaments » 2025 Australian Open » 1/11/2025 9:25 am |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 6
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Thanks for getting it up!
Men
Quarterfinals
Sinner v. Tsitsipas
Fritz v. Medvedev (Rublev)
Djokovic v. Alcaraz
Auger-Aliassime v. Zverev
Semifinals
Sinner v. Medvedev
Alcaraz v. Zverev
Final
Sinner d. Zverev in 4 sets
BL: Fritz (Brooksby has some chance of confounding him in the first round)
Women
Quarterfinals
Sabalenka v. Q. Zheng
Gauff v. Pegula
Rybakina (Collins) v. Boulter
Kastakina v. Swiatek
Semifinals
Sabalenka v. Gauff
Rybakina v. Swiatek
Final
Sabalenka d. Rybakina in 3
BL: Gauff (Kenin on this court with memories could pull an upset)
I'm thinking that Boulter being DeMinaur's fiancee will give her adopted Aussie status and be good for getting the crowd to pull her a round or two beyond where she'd normally be.
I think I'm giving too much weight to the first week of results by picking FAA to make the quarters, but you're picking Keys to make the final. We'll probably both be disappointed there!
I wanted to pick DeMinaur, but I could not see him making his way out of a group that included Tsitsipas and Khachanov.
| Player discussion » Djokovic » 12/17/2024 2:27 pm |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 3
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With him down to 7 in the rankings, Djokovic conceivably would need to go through 3 of the top 4 to win the Australian Open. Of those four, I think he's got the best chance against Taylor Fritz and then (in less likely to win order) Alcaraz, Zverev, and Sinner. Of course, if Sinner gets hit by WADA for a year or more, then Djokovic's chances increase dramatically.
| Player discussion » Djokovic » 10/27/2024 10:13 am |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 3
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With the exception of the Olympics this year, the wheels seem to have fallen off. Now, this has happened before (see: 2017), but he's older now. I'll be curious on whether he does finish off 2025. Right now, I think it's doubtful, but all it takes is one really good run to turn that around.
| Tournaments » 2024 US Open » 9/07/2024 3:25 pm |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 6
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You are winning by a half point since I have Sabalenka winning too. Congratulations, I am not sure we have had a contest this close in a long time.
| Tournaments » 2024 US Open » 9/03/2024 8:32 am |
- Forehand_lob
- Replies: 6
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Quarterfinals update: I am currently in the lead with 9 quarterfinalists (5 men, 4 women) to your 8 quarterfinalists (3 men, 5 women). Both my champion picks are still in the draw, while you only have a shot with the women's champ (Sabalenka for both of us). You have more potential semifinalists than I do (2 men, 3 women to my 2 men and 1 woman).
I'm picking up 2 points for my Ostapenko biggest loser (1 place off from Sakkari), while none of us pick up points for the men's biggest loser, Tsitsipas.