Thiem is the only player other than Djokovic who can go toe to toe with Nadal on clay in Rafa's entire career. 

Whether he beats him is another story, but he is not overmatched during points. Everyone else has been overmatched. 

Although I can't watch her play since I don't have BeInSports, Halep appears finally to have regained her 2014 clay form, when I picked her to win Roland Garros after watching her in action in the month before it started. Back then, she was mentally strong and dominated the third set against players, even after losing tough second sets. Since then, she has been mentally weak, collapsing at the first sign of problems. 

We'll see how she handles being the favorite at Roland Garros, but if she maintains her present mindset, she will put herself in excellent position to win it. She'll always be susceptible to an in-form power player, but they'll have to play about as well as Sharapova did in the 2014 Roland Garros final (one of the best match I've ever seen her play) to beat her. 

Last edited by funches (5/19/2017 10:08 am)

I'm not too worried about Halep's ankle unless she's worried about it. It gave her an excuse to stop playing hard. I think her brain gets fried if she competes well in every match for two straight events. 

Thiem had to save three match points against Querrey, who was playing well but is still an American on clay, before he beat Rafa and got blasted by Djokovic. I don't like the way Thiem competes when he feels he is overmatched, but I felt the same way about del Potro and Wawrinka before they broke through in slams. 

Your list of top contenders is good. I would put Djokovic ahead of Thiem, but he definitely has not proven he can do it this year. Zverev, until Rome, simply was not as good as he was touted. Don't get me wrong. Doing what he was doing at age 20 meant he was a potential future No. 1 and certainly bound for greatness, but he  was not there yet, even in the Aussie Open match against Nadal that everyone incorrectly assumes he would have won if he had not cramped. He would go in and out of matches and play very passively at times. 

But from the Fognini match on, he was terrific in Rome, taking the racket out of the hand of his opponents and also displaying excellent defense when he needed it. If that Zverev shows up in Paris, he can win it, but I think he's still too young to hold it together mentally and physically over a series of best-of-five matches. 

I would substitute Wawrinka for Ramos-Vinolas. I don't give Wawrinka a shot in Paris, but I've been wrong about him in the past when he was showing indifferent form in lead-up tournaments. If anyone other than Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem, Zverev or Warinka won Roland Garros, it would be one of the biggest surprises to me in the history of tennis.