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1/18/2015 6:55 am  #1


2015 Australian Open contest

Sorry for getting this up late.  I'll keep this open until you enter, funches.

THE RULES

1. Pick quarterfinalists, semifinalists, finalists, and champions for both ATP and WTA draws. You will receive 7.5 points for each correct quarterfinalist, 5 points for each correct semifinalist and finalist, and 20 points for each correct champion.

2. SUBSTITUTE PICK: Pick a player from each draw to replace one of your quarterfinalists. If this player makes the quarters, they will take the place of whomever you picked in that section of the draw

3. BIGGEST LOSER: pick the highest seed that will lose in the earliest round from each draw. The player must be a top-16 seed. You get 5 points if your seed is the highest to lose and 2 points if your seed falls in the same round as the highest seed to lose.

EXTRAS

***Unseeded quarterfinalists are worth an extra half point for every seed they take out en route.

***WTF bonus: if you have a pick that makes it to the quarterfinals that no one else made (not even as a substitute pick), you'll gain an extra 5 points for it.  WTFs only valid if we have more than 2 entries.

 

1/18/2015 7:03 am  #2


Re: 2015 Australian Open contest

Men

QF
Djokovic v. Raonic
Wawrinka v Nishikori
Gulbis v. Anderson
Dimitrov (Murray) v. Federer

SF
Djokovic v Wawrinka
Gulbis v. Federer

F
Djokovic v. Federer

Champion
Federer (heart over head)

BL: Nadal

Women

QF
Serena v. Azarenka
Petkovic v Radwanska
Ivanovic v. Halep
Kerber (Bouchard) v. Sharapova

SF
Azarenka v. Petkovic
Halep v. Sharapova

F
Petkovic v. Sharapova

Champion
Sharapova

BL: Cibulkova

     Thread Starter
 

1/18/2015 6:58 pm  #3


Re: 2015 Australian Open contest

ATP

Quarterfinals

Djokovic over Raonic
Wawrinka over Nishikori
Tomic over Nadal (sub: Berdych for Tomic)
Federer over Murray

Semifinals

Wawrinka over Djokovic
Federer over Tomic

Final

Wawrinka over Federer 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 6-4
 
Biggest loser: Lopez

WTA

Quarterfinals

Serena over Wozniacki
Radwanska over Kvitova (sub: Venus for Radwanska)
Halep over Ivanovic
Sharapova over Bouchard

Semifinals

Serena over Radwanska
Sharapova over Halep

Final

Serena over Sharapova 7-5, 6-0

Biggest loser: Cibulkova

 

1/18/2015 7:04 pm  #4


Re: 2015 Australian Open contest

For the first time in a long time I think Federer has a real chance to win this slam without getting any help. When he beat Djokovic late last year (the Djoker's only loss after the U.S. Open) he played one of the best matches of his career.

The key will be staying healthy the whole tournament and not having one of those bad matches that older players succumb to more frequently, like his no-show against Cilic in the U.S. Open semis.

Although Djokovic enters every hardcourt slam as the overwhelming favorite in almost everyone's eyes, the reality is he's won only one of the last five Aussie and U.S. Opens combined--the 2013 Aussie Open. He's struggled mightily in his last three hardcourt slams against Wawrinka and did not post in his matchup with Nishikori in Queens last year.

 

1/22/2015 11:03 am  #5


Re: 2015 Australian Open contest

I think this is the quickest I've ever been knocked out, given that my inspired choices of Gulbis, Petkovic and Ivanovic all lost early.

I agree with you that while Djokovic enters as a favorite, he shouldn't be an overwhelming favorite.  He's good and you underestimate him as your peril, but he hasn't shown the ability to repeat his stellar 2011; outside of that year he hasn't won multiple slams in a year.

Gulbis and Ivanovic are our biggest losers.

     Thread Starter
 

1/22/2015 1:19 pm  #6


Re: 2015 Australian Open contest

Yes, Gulbis had four match points and couldn't convert them. My pick, Feliciano Lopez, saved four match points in winning his first-round match as I continued a long history of being unable to pick the biggest loser. 

Seeing as how I had Sharapova in the final, I thought your Sharapova pick was quite possible at the beginning of the tournament, but not any longer. Although she proved once again how clutch she is in her comeback win in the 2nd round, on a hunch I checked her early-round results from the five slams she won, and in every one of them she crushed all of opponents in the first week. All of her close victories, and there have been many, were in slams she did not win. 

If Azarenka plays like she did against Wozniacki (quick aside: those pundits who picked the punchless Woz to win the tournament don't understand tennis), she can go all the way. In fact, I don't think anyone but Serena could possibly beat her if she maintains that form, which is questionable considering her lack of match play. 

I was stunend by Ivanovic's loss. Stunned. She won more matches than anyone in the WTA last year, and although she choked in slams, she didn't lose to players like that or choke as bad as she did here. 
 

 

1/28/2015 1:14 pm  #7


Re: 2015 Australian Open contest

As we enter the semis, this is how things stand.

Forehand_lob
Men: 5 QF, 2 SF
Women: 4 QF, 1 SF

funches
Men: 7 QF, 3 SF
Women: 5 QF, 2 SF

Sharapova defeating Bouchard is a given until Sharapova drops in her level.  Much like how Serena does everything just better than Sharapova, Sharapova does things better than Bouchard (and she's also taller which gives her more reach and power).

Berdych beating Nadal was a surprise.  Sure, Nadal might not have been in his best shape for the first two sets, but Berdych has had plenty of choking problems.

Raonic needs to develop more game if he's going to beat the top players.  Forget the Sampras comparisons, right now, he's more like Karlovic than he is like Roddick.

     Thread Starter
 

1/29/2015 1:07 am  #8


Re: 2015 Australian Open contest

No doubt on Raonic. 

He's just a better Karlovic or Isner. He competes well, but his return game is a joke against top players. 

Sharapova is playing well enough to hang with Serena if she believes in herself, but I don't think he does when she faces Serena. I expect a match similar to the Keys scoreline, but not if Sharapova plays to her full potential. 

Wawrinka-Djokovic is a 50-50 match. Right now, the Wawrinka backhand is the best shot in tennis. And Djokovic may need a while to adjust to playing someone who can win baseline rallies after facing Muller and Raonic back to back. 

 

2/04/2015 5:50 am  #9


Re: 2015 Australian Open contest

Final standings:

funches 145
Forehand_lob 92.5

I was the Sharapova to your Serena.  Congratulations, funches!

     Thread Starter
 

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